基于ANP的多目标网络目标重要度评估方法＊

针对多目标网络中重心的抽象性及不易打击的特点,分析影响重心的关键要素及其依赖关系,提出了基于改进网络分析法的多目标网络重心模型,利用该模型分析目标相对于重心的重要度。研究了该模型涉及的两个关键技术,即改进判断矩阵以提高决策的速度和克服决策的主观性,利用协调理论确定要素之间的依赖关系。以分析某地区多目标网络的过程为例,验证了该模型的有效性和合理性。     

The Gravity of Arms

The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of international arms transfers in a gravity model framework. By distinguishing between the decision to export arms (extensive margin) and the value of the arms exported (intensive margin), while also considering its interdependence, is what differentiates this paper from previous research. A theoretically justified gravity model of trade augmented with political and security motives is estimated using a two-stage panel data approach for 104 exporting countries over the period from 1950 to 2007. In addition to the usual gravity variables related to the economic mass of the trading countries and the trade cost factors, the model is extended with political and security factors. The level of democracy in both trading partners, political differences between trading partners and voting similarity with the United States in the UN General Assembly of the countries engaged in trade are the main political factors, whereas the existence of conflicts, military pacts, and embargoes are taken as security motives. The key result indicates that both political and security motives are an important determinant of an arms trade, but their effects on the extensive margin of exports (the decision to order a transfer) differs from their effect on the intensive margin (average value of exports). Moreover, the relative importance of the factors under study has changed since 1989. In the post-cold war period, countries that are less democratic are more likely to export arms, military pacts are less relevant and embargoes play a role.     

超重力下燃烧合成Al2O3-ZrO2（4Y）共晶陶瓷的自挤压工艺研究

引入自挤压工艺辅助超重力下燃烧合成制备Al2O3-ZrO2（4Y）共晶复合陶瓷,可有效地消除陶瓷制品的缩孔、缩松组织等缺陷,陶瓷致密性得到明显提高,同时又有效地抑制陶瓷裂纹萌生。XRD分析显示共晶陶瓷由α-Al2O3,t-ZrO2及少量的m-ZrO2三相组成,且随自挤压力增大,陶瓷中可相变的t-ZrO2的体积分数增加。SEM观察发现陶瓷的显微组织中的棒状共晶团随自挤压力的增大而细化,体积分数增加,且分布其上的t-ZrO2纤维直径变小,共晶团组织边缘处的ZrO2枝晶逐渐转变为细小的球晶,共晶团边界组织厚度逐渐减小,从而使陶瓷力学性能得以提升。     

Terror and Internal Migration in Israel

This paper empirically analyses the effect of terror on internal migration between Israeli subdistricts. Using a unique data-set comprising migration flows for the period 1999–2012 and the number of rocket and non-rocket attacks, we test the hypotheses that terror reduces migration into an affected subdistrict and increases migration out of it. According to our results, the effect of terror on migration is asymmetric as we only find evidence for the first hypothesis. This result remains when we use an instrumental variables strategy that corrects for underreporting of the number of rocket attacks. The largest effects of rocket attacks are found for migration into the Southern subdistrict of Ashqelon as well as into other border regions in Northern Israel, while non-rocket attacks also have substantial effects in the more populous centres of Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.     

天海一体化水下重力辅助导航研究进展

水下航行器精确导航在海洋利用和开发过程中发挥了重要作用。关于抑制水下导航误差随时间累积的问题,进行了详细阐述和分析:简述了惯性器件的发展历程;详细对比了各导航系统的优劣性,着重介绍了国内外重力辅助导航研究现状,分析了针对目前水下航行器高精度导航的需求,以及全球海洋重力基准图空间分辨率不足的科学难题;提出了通过GNSS-R测高星座获得高空间分辨率和高精度全球海洋重力基准图的思路及技术路线,以期提高水下重力辅助导航精度。     

挤压铸造ZA27合金阻尼性能研究

对比研究了ＺＡ２７合金挤压铸造和重力铸造时的阻尼性能，结果表明：挤压铸造试样内耗高于重力铸造，是重力铸造的１．２倍；挤压铸造试样传递函数低于重力铸造；在频率高于２５　Ｈｚ时，ＺＡ２７合金的阻尼作用效果明显，且挤压铸造成型的机件振动衰减效果比重力铸造强．     

无线传感器网络中基于统计异常的入侵检测

无线传感器网络与传统网络存在较大差异,传统入侵检测技术不能有效地应用于无线传感器网络.结合无线传感器网络的特点,提出一种基于统计异常的入侵检测.入侵检测为传感器节点在正常工作状态下的某些系统特征建立行为模式,并通过统计观测值对正常行为模式的偏离程度来判断是否存在入侵.理论分析及仿真实验表明,提出的入侵检测技术可有效检测入侵,检测算法简洁高效,利于节能,适用于供能紧张的无线传感器网络.     

GBAS中抑制电离层异常的改进自适应Hatch滤波算法

针对单频地基增强系统(Ground Based Augmentation System, GBAS)中电离层异常时Hatch滤波器平滑精度降低问题,系统分析了电离层延时对Hatch滤波器平滑精度的影响,提出一种改进自适应Hatch滤波算法。根据卫星信号计算码载偏离度,并利用二阶线性时不变低通滤波器抑制码载偏离度高频信号,以实现电离层异常实时检测;建立平滑后伪距误差均方根与电离层延时变化率、伪距测量噪声标准差以及平滑时间三者之间的函数模型,并由此确定出Hatch滤波器最优平滑时间。利用GBAS原理样机进行验证实验,结果表明:自适应Hatch滤波算法能够根据卫星信号电离层延时变化率确定滤波器最优平滑时间,且当电离层异常时,自适应Hatch滤波器机载位置误差最大由1.15 m减小为0.43 m,从而验证了所提算法的有效性。     

基于AHP和云重心方法的装甲兵指挥信息系统效能评估

针对装甲机械化部队指挥信息系统作战效能评估问题,运用云理论进行了探索。首先,对云重心理论的步骤进行了阐述,结合层次分析法,最后用加权偏离度来衡量系统与理想状态的偏离度,将结果用Matlab三维图形对装甲机械化部队指挥信息系统的作战效能进行描述,图形较直观的反应了其效能问题。此方法简单易行,可操作性强,为装甲机械化部队指挥信息系统评估提供了一种较好的途径。